A Finals Preview For The Ages

It's been a while since we've posted something worth your while on here, and since there were some, you know, minor developments in the NBA recently (The Finals were set and start Thursday) we feel obligated to give you an idea of what to expect in this series, what each team has to do to win, a few side plots with links to keep you updated and any worthless opinions we might have. And by we, I mean I.

So I guess I'll start with what each team needs to do in order to win this series and in turn an NBA Championship, along with the eternal pride it will bring their city. And in the case of the Lakers, prevent Kobe Bryant from kidnapping Sasha Vujacic and holding him hostage until people start acting like they like him. Then I'll talk about each team's strengths and weaknesses what the other team needs to do to counteract/exploit them. Then I'll give you some links and other stories to keep an eye on. And finally, I'll give you my prediction. In other words, this is going to be one hell of a post. If you don't have time to spare, I'd stop reading.

Los Angeles Lakers

-Lamar Odom has to step up. Not just for the Lakers to win, but because I've actually started to like Lamar. What got me was the special ran at halftime of Game 5 of the Nuggets-Lakers series that focused on his obsession with candy. If you're wondering, for lunch yesterday I had a pack of Sour Skittles, a pack of Shockers, a bag of normal Skittles, a Three Musketeers bar, two Jolly Ranchers and a A&W Root Beer. So yes, I can identify with Lamar.

-Get the ball to Pau Gasol. I'm not sure what the exact stats are and I'm too lazy to look them up, but Gasol shot somewhere around 60 percent during the Conference Finals. That means 3 out every 5 times he shoots, he scores. And of course there's the chance he might get fouled. Or pass the ball to a teammate for an easy bucket, which he also does exceptionally well. In other words, when he has the ball, good things happen.

-The role players need to continue to step up. The Lakers aren't going to have the same players come up big every night, they're bench just isn't good enough. Instead, if they can have different guys each having nights when they contribute to a win, that can be just as helpful. For example, in Game 5 against the Nuggets, Shannon Brown was what tilted the game in the Lakers' favor. He came into the game in the second half and provided energy and some timely baskets, including this dunk over Chris Andersen that broke my heart. Now, Shannon Brown isn't going to do this every game for the Lakers, but if Brown, Ariza, Walton and Bynum can each have one strong game, that might be all the Lakers need.

-Derek Fisher needs to. Hold on. I can't believe I'm actually about to say this. Derek Fisher needs to play well. Normally, I would assume that Fisher is going to play terribly for the Lakers and be done with it. But after he showed us some signs of life in Games 5 and 6 of the Nuggets series, I feel the need to include that he might actually be productive for the Lakers and not the other team in the Finals.

-The Lakers need to continue to defend with intensity. As hard as it is to admit, the Lakers have been the best team in the NBA when they play hard for a full 48 minutes. If they can manage to play their hardest every single game of the Finals, there's a very, very good chance that they'll be raising the Larry O'Brien Trophy. So, to keep it simple, the world's best chance to stop Kobe Bryant from winning another NBA Championship is boredom. I know, I know. 2012 can't come soon enough.

Orlando Magic

-Hedo Turkoglu has to play better than he ever has before. He needs to be at his slashing, driving, dishing, shooting best if the Magic want to win this series. If he is able to control the game for the Magic and do something resembling counteracting Kobe Bryant, the Magic will beat the Lakers. And if you're wondering, my Hedo Turkoglu jersey shirt did arrive. I'll be wearing it for all 4-7 games of the Finals.

-Dwight Howard needs to continue to get the ball. In Games 4 and 6 of the Magic-Cavaliers series, Dwight Howard carried the Magic to victory. In Game 4 he scored 10 points in overtime and in Game 6 he scored 40 in the game. If Dwight continues to be a dominant scorer in the paint as well as the great defender that he usually is, the Magic have a great shot at winning the title.

-Related to the previous post, the Magic need to get the ball to Howard. He can't score if he doesn't have the ball, and they need to make sure they get him touches frequently and early in the shot clock. That hasn't been a problem recently for them, and it hopefully won't be in the Finals.

-Don't foul. That means you, Dwight. But it also applies to the rest of the Magic. They need to stay out of foul trouble and keep the Lakers out of the penalty. They have one of the best defense in the NBA, but that's useless when every foul puts your opponent on the line for two free throws. They still need to be aggressive on defense, just not stupidly-aggressive.

-Run the pick and roll to death. This goes with Hedo Turkoglu playing well. Phil Jackson teams can't guard the pick and roll. It's a well known fact. If Hedo attacks off of every screen he gets and is able to get into the lane and create havoc, the Magic are one of the best teams in the NBA. If he's also dishing out to their shooters and they are making their threes, they're the best. It's that simple.

Now I'll run through what each team does well, and how the other team can stop that. It goes without saying, stopping the other team from doing what they do best means you have a great shot at winning the title.

Los Angeles Lakers

Strength: Kobe Bryant. Real expert analysis, I know.
What the Magic have to do: Mickael Pietrus needs to play the best defense he's ever played. He did a fantastic job on Lebron (It's funny because Lebron still averaged 39, 8 and 8 against them, but it's true) and needs to continue to do so on Kobe. Nothing fancy, just make life difficult for him. Maybe borrow Shane's book. Maybe trip him. No that was a joke. But more importantly, Dwight needs to cut off Kobe's access to the basket. If Kobe isn't driving, he's not the same player. And Kobe isn't driving if Dwight is swatting everything he's putting up at Jack Nicholson.

Strength: The Lakers boast one of the most efficient, versatile offenses in the NBA.
What the Magic have to do: Defend hard, move their feet and contest everything. Rashard Lewis needs to battle Pau Gasol down low. No excuses about him not being a post player, he has to find a way to stop the Lakers from running the offense through Pau, which is when they are deadliest. Dwight Howard needs to stay out of foul trouble. Pietrus needs to stay in front of Kobe. Someone needs to stop letting Trevor Ariza cut to the basket for easy layups after passing it to Pau. Most importantly, the Magic need to get back on defense. The Lakers are unstoppable when they are running, and easy baskets also fuel their defense. It's messed up, but it's how they work. Cutting off their fast break points is essential for the Magic.

Weakness: Defending the pick and roll. For some reason, the Lakers, and Phil Jackson teams as a whole, struggle to guard the pick and roll.
What the Magic have to do: Run the pick and roll. A lot. A hell of a lot. So much that we get tired of seeing it. Hedo can handle the ball and is actually an excellent passer, so if they give him room to operate, he will either create for himself or for others. Dwight Howard moving towards the basket is scary for any team to defend, and his quickness will allow him to get easy baskets off passes from his teammates.

Weakness: Point guard play. There's nothing more to say here, we all know the Lakers point guards suck.
What the Magic have to do: Rafer Alston, Rafer "Why The Hell Did He Shoot That"/"How The Hell Did He Miss That" Alston, is a key to the Magic's victory. If you thought it was scary that his team was in the Finals, think about this. His team is depending on him so that they can win an NBA Championship. As much as I like to rag on Rafer Alston, I like to make fun of Derek Fisher even more. And Rafer is capable of giving Derek Fisher fits. I'm fully confident that Alston and Anthony Johnson can substantially outplay Derek Farma-Brown, and if they do, the Magic are in good shape. On the other hand, my sister and I could outplay Fisher, Farmar and Brown, so that's not saying too much.

Orlando Magic

Strength: They shoot the ball. Extremely well.
What the Lakers have to do: Stay home on the shooters. They need to ignore the instinct to help on Hedo, and let him try to beat them. Because of they collapse when he drives, Rashard, Rafer and Pietrus will be more than happy to fire up threes all day long. The same goes for Dwight. The Lakers can't double team him. Even if he's making Andrew Bynum look like, well, Andrew Bynum.

Strength: One of the most versatile, tricky offenses in the league belongs to the Magic. Their offense revolves around a 6-11 freak of nature and two 6-10 guys shooting threes, with one of them also happening to dribble the ball.
What the Lakers have to do: Use their own versatility. They have Lamar Odom, who's more than capable of shutting down Rashard Lewis. They also have Trevor Ariza, who'll do a much better job on Turkoglu than Delonte West and Wally Whatever-the-hell-his-last-name-is (Szczerbiak). The Lakers need to stop the Magic shooters from getting open looks and, in Ariza's case, stay in front of Turkoglu and generally make things difficult for him.

Weakness: Their offense revolves around three point shooting and Dwight Howard.
What the Lakers have to do: Make Dwight Howard beat them. They need to guard him with one man and not let him kick out to the shooters for open looks. Dwight's offensive arsenal is still limited, and I don't think he's ready to carry a team offensively and defensively for four games out of seven just yet.

Weakness: Rashard Lewis tends to disappear. Even though he's one of the most talented players in the NBA, he sometimes plays passively, choosing to let the game come to him. The only problem is that it often never comes.
What the Lakers have to do: Guard him aggressively. The Lakers need to find a way to take him out of the game. If that means not playing Bynum a single second so that Pau can play center, allowing Odom to guard Lewis, then so be it. Whatever it takes to make Rashard feel more like a spot up shooter and less like the lethal, offensive-killer he is.

Stories and Links

Just to get you into the spirit of things, I've compiled a list of side plots for you to take a look at while killing time before Thursday night's Game 1.

-Lamar Odom likes candy. A lot. A whole hell of a lot. I use the phrase "a whole hell of a lot" a whole hell of a lot. Not much of a story, but here it is anyways. If my opinion is worth anything to you, I saw it during halftime of Game 5 and loved it, but I've already said that in this post.

-Jameer Nelson might be returning for the NBA Finals. This isn't really a subplot, but it's not assured yet so I'm sticking it in here for now. There's so much to discuss here, like what would happen to their rotations should he return, how much he'd be able to help and if they should actually bring him back at all. But for now, I'll leave you with this and this and let you decide for yourself. If he does return, the dynamics of this entire series change, as he averaged 27.5 points in the two games in which the Magic beat the Lakers in during the regular season. But we'll have more on that if he actually does return or as soon as we get a definite answer either way.

-Both of these franchises have been completely changed by Shaquille O'Neal. He left one to suffer through it's own incompetence for 13 years and carried the other to three championships. Here's someone else talking about it.

-The Orlando Magic used to have Trevor Ariza. Not only is he now on the Lakers, he's also an important part of the their team and is arguably their best role player since Lamar Odom seems to pick and choose which games he's going to show up in.

-President Obama is picking the Lakers. I'm a pretty big fan of the man, but doesn't he have a few slightly more pressing issues to be worrying about. You know, maybe like this one? Just saying.

-Dwight Howard says that as long as the fans want him, he's going to stay in Orlando. Someone should probably tell him that he also has four years left on his contract, so leaving isn't really an option for him.

-The Magic have a good center, the Lakers don't. At the moment, at least. Bynum needs to step up if the Lakers want to win.

-A fun little true and false about the NBA Finals. Just because you can never get too much hype.

-Kobe's old. Dwight isn't. That's enough for a story. It's actually a good read if you've got a few minutes to kill.

-The Cavaliers are sad that they lost. Also, Lebron had something growing in his mouth. Yes, he averaged 39, 8 and 8 with something unnatural inside of his mouth. I'm moving on before I start to regret rooting against a Kobe-Lebron Finals.

-Jeff Van Gundy wants his brother's team to win. So do I, but that's besides the point. How he's going to juggle cheering on big brother while maintaining his objectivity is going to be interesting to watch over the course of the next 1-2 weeks.

-An actual Magic blog. And one for the Lakers.

-And one for the Thunder. Just because.

-Lebron averaged 39 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists a game against the Orlando Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals. Here's why Kobe's Western Conference Finals performance was even better. If you aren't reading any of these articles, at least read this one. It's well researched, passionate and convincing. In other words, it's everything this blog isn't.

-This is why you don't make a bunch of puppet commercials when the puppets might not actually make the Finals. "Sorry, I'm allergic to losers."

-Five keys for the Lakers to win the championship. Five more for the Magic.

-Just in case you missed anything along the way, this should bring you up to speed. If you're pressed for time and haven't been able to catch everything that happened during the playoffs, which probably should apply to most normal people, this video is the easiest way to get caught up and ready for the Finals.

-A Bill Simmons Mailbag to preview the NBA Finals. Excellent work as always. Good writing, good article, good for another 10-15 minutes.


NBA Finals Prediction

And now it's time for the good stuff. Well, I like to think it's the good stuff, but I'm not sure how many other people share my sentiments. My for-the-most-part-useless opinion about who's going to win, why and how it's going to happen. In the spirit of taking up more words and being as circuitous as possible, I'll tell you why each team will win before picking one.

Why the Magic will win: They have the ability to get hot from the outside on any given night, which lets them erase big leads and open up large cushions of their own. If they get going, they are nearly impossible to stop, as they have so many shooters that you really can't cover all of them. They have the most dominant post player in the series on both the defensive and offensive ends of the floor, but mainly on defense, which is key against the Lakers. If any team has the ability to slow down the Lakers' vaunted offense, it's this Magic squad. They have a young, growing superstar who looks like he has finally come into his own and is looking to prove himself on the biggest stage of them all against one of the league's most storied franchises, so in other words, you can bet that he'll be motivated and ready to go. They have the advantage at the point guard position, which shouldn't even have to be said at this point because, for God's sake, the Lakers are trotting out Derek Fisher to start games at the one. They have at least one player who the Lakers have no real answer for in Rashard Lewis, but that's mainly because when he's aggressive nobody in the NBA has an answer for him. They have a 6-9 forward who can shoot the ball, dribble, pass and score in the lane who also happens to be money in the clutch, as I've shown you before with various links. In case I haven't, here are a few examples of his best work. If Dwight Howard continues to control the paint on both ends of the floor, the Magic shooters keep shooting the way they have and Hedo can facilitate, score and distribute throughout the series, the Magic have an excellent chance to bring an NBA Championship to Disney World. On a semi-related note, actually, it's not related at all, but why is Disney World two words but Disneyland is one? It makes no sense to me.

Why the Lakers will win: They have the best offense in the NBA and the perfect players to run it. They have the best player in the NBA, or at least in the series, in Mr. Kobe Bean Bryant. Yes, his middle name is Bean. He was named after steak and a kind of plant seed. And he's the best player on the planet, or at least one of the two best. Like I said, 2012 can't come soon enough. They have finally started to play defense consistently and are actually damn good at it. Oh, and by the way, they're doing this all without the man who's supposed to be their starting center playing at anything close to full health. They have the deepest, most talented roster in the league, and anything short of a championship is underachieving for them. If they just live up to their potential, they should win the title.

As much as I hate to say this, I'm picking the Lakers to win it. They have the better team, home court advantage, and it finally looks like the drive as well. They also have the best NBA player not named Lebron, and this player also happens to be a psychopath who probably won't sleep until he wins an NBA Championship without this guy so he can get that much closer to this guy and so that this guy can finally pass up this guy. And so that he won't have to tell the first guy how his ass tastes. Whew.

But in all seriousness, the Lakers have too many options for the Magic to handle, and the Magic just have too many variables that could go wrong at any given time in a game/series. All it takes is one (three pointers not falling, Dwight having an off night, Rashard not being aggressive) and the Magic are in trouble for a game. Have it happen a few times, and they're in trouble for the series as a whole. Not that I think it's going to happen a few times. The Magic are a great team, and they're going to give the Lakers a hell of a fight. I'm picking the Lakers in 7 hard fought, highly contested games.

And with that, let me tell you this. The team that goes up 3-2 in this series is winning it. Because the Magic are winning Game 6. So if they split the first two and go up 3-2 by winning two out of three at home, they'll close it out in Game 6. If the Lakers go up 3-2, they'll lose Game 6 and win Game 7. So do I think the Magic can win two out of four games in Los Angeles? Yes. Do I think they will? No. But, after all, they are the best road team in basketball. And they did win a game and were one second away from winning another in the most hostile road arena in the NBA. And they also closed out a series on one of the best home courts in the league against the defending champions. So, here I am, trying to talk myself into picking the Magic, even though it's just plain stupid. But I'm not trapping myself here. I'm not choosing and underdog just for the hell of it on the off chance that if they win I can shove it in someone's face.

Then again, the Lakers do struggle, and let me emphasize that, struggle, to defend the pick and roll. And that is what the Magic do best. The Lakers also don't really have an answer for Dwight, as Pau isn't strong enough and Bynum isn't anything enough. And the Magic just knocked off the supposed best team in the league. And didn't the Magic go 2-0 against the Lakers during the regular season? But no, I'm not getting dragged into this. There's no way in hell I'm going to be dumb enough to pick the Magic when I can just as easily choose the Lakers, and Kobe Bryant, mind you, and be done with it. So I'll stick with my original prediction of the Lakers in 7.

Of course I'll never admit that to you in person. I'll probably say something like "Magic in 6, 'Glu for Finals MVP." In fact, that exactly what I'll say. You know, just to keep up my air of defiance or aura of stupidity or whatever you choose to call it. But not here. Here I have to be accurate and intelligent with what I say. This isn't a place for my half-assed opinions. Wait, that's exactly what this place is for. Screw it. Magic in 6. 'Glu for Finals MVP.

So there you have it. 3,500 words to keep you company for the next day and a half before the real action starts. Plus 10-15 more articles to read if you're really getting bored. You're welcome. Happy Finals.