Hedo 2.0

Since the Magic have just traded for Vince Carter, I feel obliged to revisit the idea of trying to sign Hedo Turkoglu. And if you think I'm just using this Carter deal as an excuse to talk about Hedo, you know me too well. The Magic's total salary, with Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson included, is at about 68 million dollars for the 2009-10 season, with the luxury tax line being about 69 million dollars next year. In other words, they're going to be paying Hedo virtually twice as much as his actual contract, as every dollar over the luxury tax means another dollar spent. For example, if Hedo signed a deal for 8 million dollars, it would put the Magic roughly 7 million dollars over the luxury tax, which means they'd have to pay 7 million extra dollars. So essentially, Hedo's contract would cost them 15 million dollars next season. And as much as I love Hedo, he is by no means a 15 million dollar player. Not at this age. Not in this economy. Which is why I believe the Magic are going to let him walk. They're going to try and resign Gortat, fill out the rest of their roster with minimum salaries and hope that they'll be able to compete in the Eastern Conference. And they will be.

Since we're on the topic, I'd like to quickly touch on the Carter trade. Of course it's an upgrade for the Magic. It's tough to lose Courtney Lee, but Ryan Anderson is no slouch. He's a power forward who can shoot the three, which mean's he'll thrive in the Magic's offensive system. And as for basically replacing Turkoglu with Carter, as much as I love Turkoglu, he's no Vince Carter. Turkoglu averaged 17-5-5 this year on 40 percent shooting while handling the ball on nearly every possession he was in the game for the Magic. Carter averaged 20-5-5 on 44 percent shooting even though Devin Harris had the ball in his hands for most of the game. Put Carter in Hedo's position with Hedo's role and he'll get you 23-6-6 with better percentages. And as for Hedo being a better shooter, that might have been true earlier on in their careers, but it's certainly not anymore. Over the last two years Carter's three point shooting has either been comparable or better than Hedo's, as last year he shot 40 percent from beyond the arc while Hedo only shot 35. Part of that is Carter's shot getting better as his athleticism slowly leaves him, but the main reason is the kind of threes that each takes. Carter has never had the luxury of waiting around at the three point line for a star to get him a wide open three, like Hedo had early in his career, Carter has always had to beat his man off the dribble and pull up for the three himself, which is significantly harder. Now, since teams are more aware of Hedo Turkoglu as a threat, he's not getting wide open threes anymore, thus the drop in shooting percentage. Carter, on the other hand, hasn't been the focus of an offense for quite some time now, as that burden belonged to Devin Harris and now to Dwight Howard. That means he'll get cleaner, better looks at the basket and it'll be reflected in his three point percentage. As good and as unique of a player as Hedo Turkoglu is, Vince Carter makes this team better. Losing Courtney Lee is probably the worst part of this deal, as he showed a lot of promise his rookie season, but Carter over Turkoglu is a no-brainer.

But back on point. If the Magic follow the path I just outlined for them, that would leave Hedo Turkoglu unsigned and up for grabs, which is where we step in. We have 55 million dollars on the books for next season, which gives is about 14 million dollars to spend before we have to pay the luxury tax. Assuming we give both Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor roster spots, it's safe to add on another million to our payroll. That still leaves us with 13 million dollars to spend on free agency, and that's where things get tricky. Von Wafer's going to get a bit of that money, something like 4 million dollars a year. He's probably worth a lot more, but there aren't too many buyers out there who are willing to spend a lot more. Thus, Von, too be perfectly blunt, is stuck with us. Which would leave us with 9 million dollars to spend. Our easiest option would be to resign Artest and move on with trying to trade Mcgrady. A more difficult and more potentially beneficial option would be to go after Turkoglu and offer him a contract comparable to any other offer that he's going to get along with giving him the chance to stay on a team contending for the championship.

As much as I love Ron and as much as I appreciate what he did for us this year, I think that if we have the chance to acquire Turkoglu we should take it. He gives us the fourth quarter scorer we've needed so badly and is an excellent three point shooter, which is essential to our offense. He's also a deft playmaker, which is an added bonus that's value isn't to be taken lightly when you consider Aaron Brooks' passing limitations. All in all I think that the Magic have inadvertently but consciously given other teams the option to make a run at Turkoglu, and I think we need to take advantage of that. When I suggested this before, it was a long-shot and really more of a daydream than an actual, viable option. Now, we have the opportunity to add a power forward with the passing ability of a point guard as well as a smooth outside shot and a knack for coming up big in the clutch, and we need make the most of it.