So, here we are again. Round III of Rockets-Mavs, also known by many as Jason Terry's Third Favorite Day of the Year. In case you were wondering, the first two were the first two times the Mavericks play us. No, not Christmas. Not Thanksgiving. Not Halloween. I know, I know, Jason Terry must be some sort of horrible, sinister man. And guess what? His fourth favorite day of the year? It's the fourth time he plays the Rockets. Yeah, that's right. Out of the Big Three of winter holidays, only one of them makes Terry's list of favorite days of the year. And if you're thoroughly confused by my feeble attempts at a segue/introduction to an article, I'll stop by saying that the joke is that Terry lights up the Rockets. And I mean really, really, lights up the Rockets. I could probably make a joke here about him lighting us up so badly we look like firecrackers, or something of that ilk, but I'll save you the anger and myself the embarrassment by moving on.
The first two games of this series have been blowouts, with the Mavericks beating the Rockets by a combined 49 points. In two games. That's a lot of points. For all you fans of advanced stats, and pardon me if I'm wrong, I'm not exactly a mathematician, that's an average of 24.5 points a game. So what can everyone's favorite overachievers do to stop the bleeding? I'm glad you asked, me from ten seconds ago. In fact, I'm so glad, I think I'll tell you.
We should start by putting Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry on Dirk Nowitzki. I know, I know, the idea that this guy is one of the most feared players in the league maddens me, but the sad truth is that the best way to stop the Mavericks is to slow down Dirk. The way the rosters line up, Scola would be the one guarding Dirk. As great of a defender as Scola is, I like the idea of putting the smaller, quicker Hayes and the more athletic Landry on Dirk. We saw in 2007 that smaller, more athletic players give Dirk troubles, and while the idea of banking on a strategy two years old when so many players have changed, grown or regressed is ludicrous, it's not like people have found any other way to defend Dirk successfully. Plus, what we've been doing against the Mavericks clearly hasn't been working, so there's no harm in switching things up a little, no?
Well, yes, there kind of is. Switching how we guard Dirk is going to be rendered useless if we can't stop Jason Terry. In two games against us, Terry's scored 51 points and missed two shots. He has an effective field goal percentage of 108.3 against us. I don't know if that's so depressing that it's funny yet, but it's still pretty damn depressing. Yes, I know, talented players get hot and there's little you can do to stop them when they do. And yes, Jason Terry is one of the deadliest players in the league when he's stroking the ball, but really? Put a damn hand in his face. Push him around a little. I don't care if Trevor Ariza doesn't take a damn shot (that might actually be a positive on both ends of the floor, but I'll get to that in a minute) he needs to be all over Terry. Yeah, Terry might still get his 25, but I'd rather have it be a hard earned 25 than 25 off of open midrange jumpers and threes.
Remember when I mentioned Ariza up there? Well depending on your reading profiency it may or may not have been a minute, but I'm addressing Ariza now anyways. Before I say anything, Trevor, I want you to know that I love you. I really do. Lord knows you try and I'm glad to have you on our team, but please, for everyone's sake, could you just tone it down a little? Ariza's effective field goal percentage this season is a little under 45 percent. For perspective reasons, that's right above Larry Hughes. Yes, this Larry Hughes. Ariza's futility is only made even more egregious when you realize that he takes nearly 7 threes a game.
"So wait," I bet you're asking me right now. "Ariza's shooting percentage when calculated using a metric that is supposed to favor three point shooters still says he can't shoot?" "Yes," I bet I would answer, "that's exactly right." What does this tell us about Ariza? He needs to take the damn ball to the basket more often. He's starting to look more comfortable driving than he was earlier in the year and he's also began to finish with authority rather than trying to finesse the ball into the hoop like he was at the season's beginning. I'm fine with him taking wide open, spot up threes, but that means three a game at most, no more of these 1-8 nights from range like he put up against Denver two days ago. Ariza has all the tools to be a sensational player, he just needs to use the talents he has and play his game. Please, Trevor, no more channeling your inner Rafer Alston. Drive hard to the basket, finish strong, take your open shots, play tough defense and start turning into the guy we all hoped you'd become.
So where are our points going to come from? Enter, Aaron Brooks. Brooks has been lethal recently, averaging 21 points a game in December while getting into the lane almost at will. Brooks is quietly turning into the player everyone hoped he'd be at the beginning of the season, penetrating into the lane to create shots for himself and others, stopping on a dime for his Calvin Murphy-esque pull-up jumper and dishing the ball better than I'd dare hoped for him to before the season began. He'll need to be extra-dominant tonight, as Jason Kidd will be guarding him and, if you hadn't really heard, Jason Kidd can't stay in front of anyone anymore.
And while the Mavericks have the reigning Sixth Man of the Year in Jason Terry, we have a sub of our own who's not too shabby himself. Carl Landry has been phenomenal this season, and we'll need him to be at his best tonight against the Mavericks. We've struggled to score agains the Mavericks this season, averaging a little over 101 points per 100 possessions against them, which would put us at 9th worst in the league. Landry's going to need to shoulder some of the scoring burden, which hasn't been a problem for him thus far.
Next, threes are the key to our success. In two games against the Mavericks this season we've shot a combined 11 for 43 from beyond the arc, good for about 26 percent. When you take the third most threes in the NBA like we do, you need to hit them to beat good teams like the Mavericks. Like they say, if you live by the three then you'll die by the three, and against the Mavericks the three has been, well, it's been murdering the shit out of us.
And it's not just our threes. The Mavericks have been knocking them down from deep against us, going 16 of 27 from behind the arc in the two games we've played, good for 55 percent. If we can defend the three a little better while hitting them at our usual clip, we should be in a much better position to win tonight than we have been the past two times we've matched up against the Mavericks.
Finally, I think we've just been a little unlucky against the Mavericks this season. Jason Terry is great, but not going 17 of 19 great. We're a good three point shooting team, so we're surely not going to shoot 25 percent from long range for a third game against the same team. Also, it's not like the Mavericks have really killed us in any one aspect in both games, it's been more of them hitting shots at an unsustainable clip and our players missing. If that happens for a third time, then so be it. Sometimes that's the way the cookie crumbles. You're going to have nights when you can't seem to hit the side of a barn (Which, when you think about it, is sort of irrelevant. We're playing basketball, not some twisted rural game that involves throwing balls at a barn.) and you're opponent can't seem to miss. That's just basketball. Hopefully, it doesn't happen to us for a third straight game. I honestly can't stand the sight of seeing Jason Terry pretending to fly around like a plane against us one more time. We get it, Jason, your nickname is JET. It's very original, you're a funny guy. Now please stop it.
Expect a hard fought, well-contested matchup tonight folks. I understand, you're probably going to be tempted to go out and you know, have a life tonight, but stay in, for his sake. Oh god I uploaded the wrong picture. That's more like it. And, as always, go Rockets.
Houston Rockets: 14-11, 96.5 possessions per game (9th), 104.2 points scored per 100 possessions (16th), 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions (15th)
Dallas Mavericks: 19-7, 93.9 possessions per game (23rd), 106.2 points scored per 100 possessions (11th), 99.3 points allowed per 100 possessions (4th)
All stats courtesy of hoopdata.com
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